This study examines the profile of credit operations of the Constitutional Financing Fund of the Central-West (FCO), highlighting its alignment with Economic Complexity and Climate Finance frameworks. The Brazilian Central-West faces a structural paradox, despite being an agro-industrial powerhouse, it performs with the country’s lowest average economic complexity, revealing a productive structure dependent on low-value-added commodities. To analyze the credit profile using robust methods, this research employs the multivariate Factor Analysis of Mixed Data (FAMD) and K-Means clustering on a dataset of 151,000 operations to identify the latent structure of regional credit contracted between 2008 and 2022. Results reveal that the transformative capacity of the FCO resides in the directionality of credit modalities rather than the financial volume provided. Qualitative variables, such as “Program” and “Modality”, dominate data variance, indicating that the institutional design of financing lines is a central factor in the regional development trajectory. Four distinct clusters were identified, most notably Cluster 3, which possesses the institutional design capable of fostering investments in technological modernization and conservation, showing higher adherence to the climate agenda and potential to increase the Product Complexity Index (PCI). Conversely, a concerning concentration of resources is observed in Cluster 2, which is focused on traditional farming costs and subsistence. The study concludes that maintaining this pattern without technological transition strategies may be counterproductive, perpetuating environmental vulnerabilities. We recommend integrating complexity metrics and green conditionalities into FCO governance, transforming it from a conventional development fund into an architect of sophisticated productive capabilities. Transitioning to a productive structure resilient to climate change emerges as a pathway to ensure technological sovereignty and regional resilience amidst the global climate crisis.
