Towards COP31: What Happened to the Promises Made at COP30?
By Andressa Lima (CFC-GS/UFPA) The 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025, marked an important moment for the international climate agenda. Against a backdrop of worsening climate change and growing global economic inequalities, the conference reinforced commitments related to climate finance, adaptation, and the transition towards a low-carbon economy. However, as COP31 approaches, scheduled for November 2026 in Antalya, Türkiye, it has become increasingly important to assess the progress made since the Belém conference, particularly regarding the implementation of the commitments undertaken and the translation of announced targets into concrete action. According to the COP30 Presidency (2026a), the conference concluded with the adoption of 56 consensus decisions covering areas such as climate finance, mitigation, adaptation, just transition, technology, gender, and loss and damage. Among the main outcomes was the Mutirão Decision, which established the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mission to 1.5°C, initiatives designed to accelerate the implementation of climate commitments. The decision also called for tripling adaptation finance by 2035 and formally acknowledged the Baku to Belém Roadmap to USD 1.3 Trillion. At the institutional level, COP30 established a new Climate Finance Work Programme under Article 9 of the Paris Agreement, which addresses developed countries’ responsibilities for providing financial support. The conference also launched the Veredas Dialogue, aimed at aligning financial flows with low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development pathways. Regarding adaptation, the Belém Adaptation Indicators were adopted to support the monitoring of national adaptation efforts. In the area of just transition, the conference established a framework for international cooperation, technical assistance, and capacity-building, reinforcing the links between climate action, sustainable development, and social inclusion. Despite these advances, COP30 failed to establish a formal, consensus-based roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels. As highlighted by UN News (2025), the absence of such a commitment from the final text reflected disagreements among countries over the pathways for the energy transition, demonstrating that institutional progress does not eliminate the political obstacles to achieving climate objectives. One of the main initiatives aimed at addressing financial challenges is the Baku to Belém Roadmap, developed by the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies. The document outlines five areas for action: expanding grants and concessional finance, addressing debt sustainability and fiscal space, mobilizing private capital, strengthening institutional capacities, and reshaping international financial structures. According to the Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T report (2025), external climate finance flows to developing countries were estimated at USD 196 billion in 2023. Reaching USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035 would therefore require increasing this amount more than sixfold. The report also highlights the importance of public finance: approximately 78% of the identified external financial flows came from public sources, while only 22% originated from private sources. Furthermore, 64% of resources were allocated to mitigation, 19% to adaptation, and 17% to activities combining both objectives. These figures underscore the need not only to increase climate finance but also to improve its distribution, particularly given the fiscal constraints and high costs of capital faced by countries in the Global South. In July 2026, the COP30 Presidency (2026b) reported that implementation of the Baku to Belém Roadmap was entering a new phase focused on strengthening data systems, institutional coordination, and the development of monitoring mechanisms. The expectation is to present an initial implementation update at COP31, based on measurable progress. However, these initiatives still need to be accompanied by evidence of an effective increase in available financial resources. In Brazil, several initiatives seek to translate this agenda into investment. According to a report by Ana Teresa Brasil (2026), published on the Amazônia na COP30 platform, part of the Science and Voices of the Amazon movement linked to the Federal University of Pará (UFPA), Lidiane Rocha de Oliveira Melo, a representative of Brazil’s Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, highlighted an initiative involving approximately BRL 2 billion in planned investments in infrastructure in the Amazon, with the potential to mobilize additional resources for the bioeconomy and sustainable tourism. The initiative, which is still underway, illustrates the importance of public financial instruments in mobilizing private investment. In the same report, Bruna Cerqueira, General Coordinator of the COP30 Presidency’s Action Agenda, emphasized the need for permanent mechanisms to monitor commitments and ensure continuity of action between climate conferences. Difficulties in mobilizing climate finance are also evident in other vulnerable regions. According to Peter Hobson, reporting for Reuters (2026), the Pacific Resilience Facility received approximately USD 15 million in new funding pledges in October 2026. Nevertheless, total commitments remained below USD 200 million, far from the regional target of USD 500 million set for after COP31. Although separate from the global financing target, this case illustrates the challenges of financing local adaptation projects. As COP31 approaches, geopolitical obstacles also persist. In an interview with Exame magazine (2026), Carlos Lopes, COP30 Special Envoy for Africa, expressed very low expectations for the conference in Türkiye, highlighting the continuation of international tensions that shaped the negotiations in Belém. Thus, COP30 left an important institutional legacy, but its effectiveness will depend on the implementation of the commitments undertaken. The challenge for COP31 will be to demonstrate that financial targets can be translated into effective, predictable, and accessible resources capable of supporting the climate transition without deepening the economic inequalities that characterize the Global South. References LIMA, Ana Teresa. O que a COP 30 levará para Antália, na Turquia, sede da COP 31? Amazônia na COP30, September 22, 2026. Available at: https://amazonianacop.ufpa.br/2026/09/22/o-que-a-cop-30-levara-para-antalia-na-turquia-sede-da-cop-31/. EXAME. ‘Expectativas muito baixas’, diz enviado especial da COP30 para a África sobre COP31 na Turquia. 2026. Available at: https://exame.com/esg/expectativas-muito-baixas-diz-enviado-especial-da-cop30-para-a-africa-sobre-cop31-na-turquia/. HOBSON, Peter. Pacific’s new climate fund gets $15 million boost but remains far below target. Reuters, October 7, 2026. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/pacifics-new-climate-fund-gets-15-million-boost-remains-far-below-target-2026-10-07/. UN NEWS. Belém COP30 delivers climate finance boost and a pledge to plan fossil fuel transition. November 22, 2025. Available at: https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/11/1166433. COP30 PRESIDENCY. Normative: COP30 Outcomes. July 1, 2026a. Available at: https://cop30.br/en/cop30-outcomes/normative. COP30 PRESIDENCY. Mapa do Caminho de Baku a Belém rumo a US$ 1,3 trilhão.
