By Douglas Alencar (Federal University of Pará)
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil exhibit unique characteristics, largely stemming from intense pressure on natural ecosystems and the country’s productive structure. Unlike many developed nations, where emissions predominantly result from fossil fuel combustion, Brazil’s primary source has historically been associated with land-use change—especially deforestation and forest degradation.
Understanding the evolution of Brazil’s carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions over time is essential for guiding effective public policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Moreover, analyzing the sectoral composition of emissions allows for the identification of structural trends and the assessment of progress—or setbacks—in the transition to a low-carbon economy.
This study uses data from SEEG (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation System) to examine the historical trajectories of emissions by source from 1990 to 2023. Through graphical representations of total emissions and the sectoral share of emissions, the main dynamics shaping the country’s emissions profile are analyzed. The objective is to identify persistent patterns, structural changes, and their implications for Brazilian climate policy in a context of growing environmental urgency.
Figure 1:
Figure 1 shows the evolution of total CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) emissions in Brazil between 1990 and 2023, broken down by source, based on data from SEEG (System of Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates).
The main contributor to emissions during this period is the category “Land Use and Forest Change,” which primarily reflects deforestation. This sector peaked in 2004, with emissions exceeding 2 billion tons of CO₂e. From that year onward, a sharp decline is observed until 2012, followed by fluctuations and a new upward trend from 2014, with significant annual variation.
Agriculture, the second-largest source of emissions, shows a gradual and consistent growth trajectory throughout the period, increasing from approximately 400 million to over 600 million tons of CO₂e by 2023. This represents continuous expansion, without significant declines.
The Energy sector also shows notable growth, particularly between 1995 and 2014, a period marked by increased economic activity and energy consumption. After 2014, a stabilization or slight decline is observed, possibly linked to the economic slowdown and transition in the energy matrix.
The categories, Industrial Processes and Waste are responsible for a significantly smaller volume of emissions, remaining relatively stable over time. Although they show some growth, they remain well below the other sources. Industrial emissions exceed waste emissions, but both have limited weight in the national total.
Overall, the trajectory of Brazilian emissions is heavily influenced by the behavior of the “Land Use and Forest Change” category. Although emissions from this source decreased after 2004, the continued increase in emissions from Agriculture and Energy has constrained the overall decline in emissions. The graph reveals persistent structural patterns, highlighting the resilience of the agricultural sector and the growing role of energy until the middle of the last decade.
Figure 2:
Figure 2 presents the percentage share of different sources of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) emissions in Brazil between 1990 and 2023, highlighting changes in the relative composition of emissions over time, regardless of the absolute volume.
Land Use and Forest Change has historically been the main source of emissions, accounting for about 70% in the early 1990s. Since 2004, its relative share has significantly decreased, reaching approximately 50% around 2012. Although there have been fluctuations in recent years, there is an overall declining trend, reflecting efforts to combat deforestation, albeit with occasional setbacks.
Agriculture, the second largest source, shows continuous growth over the period, rising from about 20% in 1990 to over 30% in 2023. This increase is due both to the absolute rise in emissions from the sector and the relative reduction in the contribution from land use change.
The Energy category ranks third in relevance, with a consistent growth trajectory, especially after 2010. Its share rises from around 7% to approximately 15%, following the expansion of energy demand in the country.
Emissions from Industrial Processes maintain a modest share but show noticeable growth starting in the 2000s, stabilizing around 5% in recent years. Finally, the Waste sector shows the smallest relative share, fluctuating between 2% and 3% throughout the period. While there is a slight increase, no significant structural changes are observed.
Overall, Figure 2 reveals a diversification of emission sources in Brazil. The loss of dominance by the “Land Use and Forest Change” category and the increasing share of sectors such as agriculture, energy, and industry suggest a transition in the structure of national emissions. This shift can be interpreted as a partial decarbonization of land use, accompanied by a growing carbonization of productive sectors, which presents new challenges for the formulation of effective and integrated climate policies.
The analysis of Brazilian CO₂ equivalent emissions between 1990 and 2023 reveals both the persistence of historical patterns and signs of structural transformation. The dominance of the “Land Use and Forest Change” category underscores the central role of deforestation in the dynamics of national emissions. However, although this source has reduced its relative share over time, it remains the main driver of the most abrupt variations in total emissions.
In parallel, the gradual and consistent growth of emissions associated with agriculture and energy is observed, reflecting a shift in the pollution source profile. The proportional increase in these sectors highlights the expansion of carbon-intensive productive activities, often linked to economic growth and the expansion of agribusiness and energy infrastructure.
In this context, addressing climate change in Brazil requires a redirection of public policies, with an emphasis on structurally reducing emissions in the agriculture, energy, industry, and waste sectors. The Brazilian trajectory suggests that it is not enough to curb deforestation; it is essential to promote an ecological transition in productive sectors, with investments in clean technologies, changes in energy patterns, and sustainable innovations in agriculture. This involves confronting not only the past of Brazilian emissions but also their new drivers.
