CREDIT OPERATIONS OF BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES: CHARACTERISTICS, DISTRIBUTION, AND CLIMATE LINKAGE

Camila de Moura Vogt

This paper analyzes the distribution of credit operations of Brazilian municipalities registered in the PVL/STN system (2002–2025), focusing on financing linked to the climate agenda. Grounded in the second-generation fiscal federalism literature, the study classifies operations into four climate linkages (direct, indirect, instrumental, and non-climate) and employs concentration indicators (Gini, Lorenz, Top-10%), persistence and diversification analyses, and econometric models of access determinants. Results reveal two parallel distributive circuits: a more accessible indirect climate credit (85.3% of municipalities; Gini 0.880) and a restricted, episodic, and geographically concentrated direct climate credit (17.5% access; Gini 0.985; 70% of municipalities accessing in a single year). Municipalities in the Southeast access direct credit at rates several times higher than those in the North and Northeast, which have the greatest socio-climatic vulnerability. The evidence suggests that federal financing programs, especially the PAC, operated as temporary catalysts without generating recurrent access capacity. The econometric models, restricted to the subsample with Fiscal Management Report data (which concentrates only 2% of direct climate credit), indicate that regional determinants dominate fiscal factors in this subgroup and should not be generalized to the universe of municipalities.

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